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1)
Message boards :
Seasonal Attribution Project :
News section on main website...
(Message 1216)
Posted 1130 days ago by Pardeep Pall
Indeed, it was. Now edited, thanks! |
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2)
Message boards :
Seasonal Attribution Project :
Nature study based (perhaps partially) by SAP ?
(Message 1209)
Posted 1136 days ago by Pardeep Pall Hello to all, No, I'm afraid we didn't. The article you referred, though very important, is more of a conventional statistical based study with a few tens of relatively low-resolution (albeit different) model simulations over several decades. Contrast this to the few thousand high-resolution models simulations over a few months we have in our project. Moreover, their analysis is on larger, zonal-mean, scales as opposed to our UK scales and is not broken down by season so that that are reporting annual increases. Paragraph 5 of this brief in the journal Nature summarise the relevant bit for us: "The models including both human and natural influences gave the best fit to the observed trends. In the zone between 40 and 70 °N, which includes much of North America and most of Europe, rainfall increased by 62 millimetres per century between 1925 and 1999. The researchers estimate that between 50 and 85% of this increase can be attributed to human activity. I'll stress that this study is however very important, because it shows for the first time conclusive evidence that human activity has altered rainfall patterns (albeit zonal-mean), and could be a harbinger of things to come. In the sense that, it is complementary to our project. In fact, two of the authors were former students in our department, and the UK Met Office author, Peter Stott, is a collaborator in our project! |
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3)
Message boards :
Seasonal Attribution Project :
Pardeep's SAP webcast available online
(Message 1208)
Posted 1136 days ago by Pardeep Pall Pardeep, Yes there are some plans along that line in the form of an "operational system", which I've briefly outlined here. But nothing's definite yet. The simulations currently being crunched for 2000 do output monthly-mean temperatures and precipitation over Australia so they are of some use. For example, according to the World Meteorological Organization's report on the Status on th e Global Climate for 2000, Western Australia had a very dry Apr-Nov & Victoria was dry in Jan-Aug. So we could investigate this. But, as you alluded to, we really need continuous temperatures for more recent years (because droughts tend to be more of a multi-year rather than seasonal event) and at least daily output, along with things like rainfall & soil moisture. That's what we would hope to get with our operational system. Also, there is possibly some interest at Melbourne University in our kind of attribution study, so that might be a possible collaboration in a future project. |
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4)
Message boards :
Seasonal Attribution Project :
New Extension to Project Planned
(Message 1203)
Posted 1139 days ago by Pardeep Pall
Indeed. Since the wet weather appears to be persisting through the summer in the UK (along with the warm weather in Southern Europe), this is something we could address with our project design. In fact, what were looking towards in the future is developing an "operational system" of this current project. The idea is that this operational system would be running all the time (similarly to operational weather forecasting), with the latest available greenhouse gas (and possibly sulphate) concentrations and sea-surface temperatures input to Industrial model simulations (as well as running parallel Non-industrial model simulations). Thus we would be able to produce an assessment fairly quickly after event "X" has occurred, as to how likelihood of that event occurring has changed due to human-induce climate change. How quickly would depend on how quickly the latest concentration and sea surface temperature data is made available to us & how fast people can crunch simulations! Ultimately the aim is to put a (rigorous) number on how likelihoods of various types of weather events have changed. We feel this would be more useful than the current qualitative statements one typically hears in the media along the lines of "it's hard to attribute individual events to climate change / these kind of event may be expected to increase due to climate change". |
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5)
Message boards :
Seasonal Attribution Project :
Pardeep's SAP webcast available online
(Message 1201)
Posted 1139 days ago by Pardeep Pall (Heatwave occurrence in South Africa and India) Well we're concentrating more on analysing the UK flood results at the moment. But there has been interest, from visiting scientist from India, in analysing the Indian region data. Both for heatwaves in central areas and for glacier melt further north. In fact here's a little movie showing the kind of data they would like to look at. Also, given the recent heatwaves in Australia, we reckon it would have been worth outputting detailed data over that region too but perhaps we'll do this next time! |
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6)
Message boards :
Seasonal Attribution Project :
New Extension to Project Planned
(Message 1200)
Posted 1139 days ago by Pardeep Pall Hi All, OK, finally added this info to the Project Extensions page. Sorry for the delay. |
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7)
Message boards :
Seasonal Attribution Project :
New Extension to Project Planned
(Message 1137)
Posted 1190 days ago by Pardeep Pall Hi All, Yep, earlier today we put out the batch of workunits for this new extension. In the coming days there will be a webpage giving more details of what this extension is all about. In the meantime, you can go ahead and start crunching the new workunits. Thanks again and enjoy! |
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8)
Message boards :
Number Crunching :
Time to run the results script?
(Message 1102)
Posted 1240 days ago by Pardeep Pall Hi all, The problem of only the old models having their graphs generated should now be fixed, and there should now be results graphs for the new simulations (returned up to around 27/03/07). The problem was due to a minor glitch with the post-processing scripts. Sorry for not doing this earlier, as I've been away for a while, and future running of the scripts will hopefully be a bit more frequent now. |
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9)
Message boards :
Number Crunching :
SAP Extended Project
(Message 1013)
Posted 1288 days ago by Pardeep Pall Will there coming more WUs after the current extended WUs was finished ? No, I'm afraid there are no plans to issue more WUs for this project after the current extension WUs have all been sent out. We're looking into the possibility of other such projects in the future, but we can't say anything for definite yet! |
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10)
Message boards :
Number Crunching :
SAP Extended Project
(Message 974)
Posted 1315 days ago by Pardeep Pall Thanks for the new wu's! Glad to be crunching again for this project. Hi, thanks for crunching. Well, we've been focussing mainly on the UK precipitation data and this interesting dependence on sea surface temperature that has emerged - hence the extension. So our collaborators are waiting to see what the outcome of the extension is before doing any in depth analysis. We have, however, planned some exchange visits this year to get things moving in the that direction. |
